Subject: Opportunity and Motive (Analysis)
From: hill@threonine.cs.unc.edu (Curtis Hill)
Date: 1990-10-09, 18:16
Newsgroups: alt.tv.twin-peaks

Well, I sat down the other night and thought this thing out a bit.
I looked for motive and opportunity.  What I got was this:

1)  The murderer had to have freedom to roam

2)  The murderer had to have a boat

3)  The murderer had to want to kill Laura

4)  The murderer had to be "badder" than Leo

5)  The murderer knew Josie


Why?


1)  The murderer was out for 2+ hours in the middle of the night.
    You have to be able to do this easily.  Granted, Donna or James
    could have shook loose, but this seems unlikely.

2)  Laura's body was found on the shore of a lake.  It wasn't washed
    up there.  The murderer had to have a boat to get it there.
    Well, a boat would be the easiest thing to use.

3)  Murders have a reason.  Random violence is rare.  Especially in
    the Great Northwest.

4)  Jacques was stabbed at the cabin and collasped outside.  Then Leo
    left.  A normal mode of action would be to take Laura and Ronnette
    near their homes.  However, he left by himself.  There are only a
    few characters with enough authority to get Leo out of there.

5)  In episode #0, Josie knew something bad was going to be discovered
    when Pete left the house.

Whodunit?

Ben.

Ben had freedom of motion.  Additionally, he seems to never sleep.

Ben has a boat.  That's how he gets to OEJ's.

The supposition:  Laura had learned from Josie that Josie and Ben were
                  out to get the mill.  Josie tells Ben.  Something has
                  to be done.

Ben can make Leo go away.

Ben stopped to tell Josie the evil deed was done and dropped the body off.
The rock does provide good cover to ground a boat.  This is the weak link,
as that seems like a silly place to put the body.  However, Catherine,
Josie, and Pete are not prime suspects for murder.


I'll go with Killer Bob is actually a manifestation of Leland the 
molester.  Someone molested him, etc.  This is the psychic part of
the show.  Leland followed Laura that night and found her dead.
Bob is a red herring.  He didn't do it.  You are driven to believe it,
just like in murder mysteries, where the most obvious suspect usually
doesn't do it.

The Log?   Margaret's husband.  That could explain the computer message,
if you buy the psychic/ghost aspect of the show.

Other things are red herrings and future plot devices.  

Coop's partner will show up later and ally with the Evil in the Woods.
Leo won't get blamed for the fire, but will cause trouble from his bed.
Catherine has Josie.  Self-preservation, if you will.
Donna's getting weird could develop nicely.


One thing still has me confused:  Andy

Andy seems a little strange.  Yeah, an understatement, I know.  However,
if Killer Bob had handcuffs on and if his actions after getting hit
by the board in Season 2 Ep 0 can be considered relevent.  He got hit
and blood was coming out his nose.  In the shot of Killer Bob leaning
over Laura's bed (from Sarah's vision and from the dream sequence in Ep 2),
is there a red blood spot on the bed?  Like his nose had been bleeding?
My VCR isn't good enough to tell if it's blanket pattern or blood.
If this is true, then Andy might be Bob.  My money's still on Leland.



That's long enough.  Of course, I have two other good theories, but
I like this one best.


Curtis Hill
hill@cs.unc.edu