Subject: Re: Who shot Cooper? III
From: hall@wildthing.bellcore.com (Michael R. Hall)
Date: 1990-11-02, 14:22
Newsgroups: alt.tv.twin-peaks,rec.gambling

In article <626@kaos.MATH.UCLA.EDU> sam@math.ucla.edu (Sam Needham) writes:
> >In article <1991@maus.Morgan.COM> maus@Morgan.COM (Malcolm Austin) writes:
[On Twin Peaks...]
>> >>As someone else posted, Cooper just knows when to break the rules.  The guy 
>> >>who controls Cooper's funds also knows when to bend the rules.  I'll stake 
>> >>anyone who can consistantly get 10 cents on the dollar playing Blackjack 
>> >>anytime he wants.
>> >>Who shot Cooper?  The pit boss from One Eyed Jacks--Dale was lucky to leave
>> >>the casino alive, hitting on 18.
> >
> >He hit on a 19, and in a way that proved he wasn't counting cards - if he was,
> >he would have been afraid of getting Jacques' hole card, a king. Maybe he
> >had a mirror? 

Jacques had a ten showing, and Cooper had seventeen showing with a 2 face
down (because of the odd way they deal cards at OEJ) and so Jacques asked
him if he was *sure* he wanted another card. Cooper responds in the
affirmative, hitting on a 19 and drawing a 2 (of course). Cooper gives
Jacques a $1000 chip as a tip. Cooper later asks Jacques how long he's been
dealing and Jacques says something like "Long enough to spot a card
counter." Cooper asks to see the $1000 chip and Jacques never asks
to have it back. Duh. Cooper pointed out in another context that
Jacques is stupid.

As a card counter, *I* can say that Cooper was probably not counting
cards - he's just being cocky. However, if the deck were down to the
last card, Cooper could know that a face card and a two were the
dealer's hole card and the last card (not necessarily in that order).
Given this, it's interesting to note that hitting and standing would
have the same chance of winning: 50-50. If he is a card counter, then
he is *awfully* cocky to hit in this situation. [Note: Jacques' was
holding about a deck of cards in his hand, but that's because the
discards are placed face up at the bottom of the deck.]

Of course, if he spotted Jacques' hole card or read Jacques' expression as
he peeked for blackjack (spooking or front-loading), then hitting on 19 was
the proper play, so long as you don't fear getting some "heat" from the
casino. A very sophisticated shuffle-tracker could also in theory know
the exact value of the next card.

> >As many books on card-counting point out, no one can expect a consistent
> >profit counting for the simple reason that if the house can't beat you
> >( or cheat you! ) they'll bar you. If that is true in well-regulated places
> >like Vegas, imagine OEJ's...

Eh? There exist professional card counters. You cannot be barred in
Atlantic City (granted, the blackjack games there are poor). Even in
Nevada, plenty of card counters play for a long time without ever
getting barred. You just can't be too greedy or too cocky. Many books
have suggestions for how to avoid getting barred (e.g., Ian Anderson's
"Turning the Tables on Las Vegas").

It is not illegal to card count, but it is illegal in Nevada to return
to a casino from which you have been barred.

--
Michael R. Hall               |   Shuffle-trackers do it with determinism.
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